Situation Report on the Russo-Ukrainian War (2/25/22)

On February 24, 2022 at 0500 Eastern European Time (EET), the Russian Federation initiated hostilities with sovereign nation of Ukraine. The Russian Air Force (RAF), Russian Navy (RN), and Russian Ground Force (RGF) began their campaign by targeting Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) facilities, airfields, ports, ground installations, and air defense facilities, and have now initiated a major land invasion Ukraine. It remains unclear if this is a limited operation, although indicators are pointing towards a much larger Russian strategic objective.

Timeline

*Reporting in Eastern European Time (EET) or Moscow Standard Time (MST).

0500 EET - 2/24/22 - Moscow, Russian Federaation

Russian President Vladimir Putin declares war on Ukraine, calling for the complete 'demilitarization' and 'de-nazification' of the country.

0500 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

Russian Air Force (RAF), Russian Navy (RN), and Russian Ground Force (RGF) elements begin a massive bombing campaign, causing chaos at large Ukrainian installations. Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) facilities, airfields, ports, ground installations, and air defense facilities are primary targets.

0530 EET - 2/24/22 - Washington, D.C.

The White House decries Russian actions in Ukraine, calling the attack 'unprovoked' and 'unjustified'.

0600 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

A major explosion rocks Krasnopolye, Sumy Oblast following strikes against the Krasnopolye Ammunition Depot.

0610 EET - 2/24/22 - Kyiv, Ukraine

The Ukrainian Government orders the imposition of martial law due to the national emergency. Mixed reports indicate the presence of a Russian airborne forces (VDV) element in Kyiv.

0740 EET - 2/24/22 - Belarus

According to open source information, the government of Belarus orders its forces to coordinate with the Russian Federation in its invasion of Ukraine.

1200 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

RGF have made rapid gains of five fronts, mainly from the north, east, and west.

1400 EET - 2/24/22 - Chernobyl, Ukraine

RGF and Ukrainian Army formations come into contact near Chernobyl, Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns there is a high risk nuclear waste facilities will be inversely impacted by the fighting.

1700 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

The Russian Federation reopens the Pivnichno-Kryms'kyi Channel, thus restoring water flow to Crimea. The Ukrainian Government stopped the flow of water to Crimea following its annexation in 2014.

1700 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

The Ukrainian Government announces it has lost control of the situation in Kherson Oblast.

1810 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

RGF elements reach the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. Russian forces appear to be in control of Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Kyiv Oblast, less than 20 km from Kyiv.

1810 EET - 2/24/22 - Moscow, Russian Federation

Moscow Police seal off Pushhkinskaya Square in anticipation of anti-war protests. At least one Russian legislator has been arrested for anti-war rhetoric.

1820 EET - 2/24/22 - Ukraine

Ukrainian forces destroy a dam on the Pecheneg reservoir in order to halt the advance of RGF elements near Kharkiv.

1900 EET - 2/24/22 - Europe

The United Kingdom (UK) imposes freezes on all major Russian banks currently operating in the country, bans Russia's Aeroflot, and announces major sanctions on major Russian businesses and high-level policymakers. Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicates he is working with fellow European states to cut Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are working to block any such disconnection.

1900 EET - 2/24/22 - Chernobyl, Ukraine

RGF elements capture Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. Unclear if Ukrainian formations are still in area of operations.

1920 EET - 2/24/22 - Moscow, Russian Federation

The Russian Federation's Ministry of Defense (MOD) claims it has achieved all of its goals within the past hours. Due to translation issues, it remains unclear if they are simply referring to daily goals, or the overall strategic and operational objectives for the campaign.

1920 EET - 2/24/22 - Washington, D.C.

The US Department of Defense (DOD) claims policymakers in Moscow aim to overthrow the government of Ukraine, and that today's operations are simply the first phase in a larger plan.

1940 EET - 2/24/22 - Moscow, Russian Federation

Moscow is reportedly willing to negotiate terms with policymakers in Kyiv. Russia is seeking a guarantee that Ukraine will remain neutral, a guarantee it will not join NATO, and a ban on the sale of weapons to the country.

2050 MST - 2/24/22 - Washington, D.C.

President Joseph R. Biden declares Russian campaign in Ukraine unjustified and illegitimate. The United States, in cooperation with allies and partners, will severely limit ability to utilize USD, Yen, and Euro. The Department of Treasury has essentially cut off five of the biggest Russian banks from the American economy. Over time, the United States aims to cut off nearly half of Russian technology imports from US and allies. Additional deployments of US forces are currently being reviewed.

0010 EET - 2/25/22 - Ukraine

The Ukrainian Government has banned males between 25 to 50 from leaving Ukraine.

On the Southern Front, the Ukrainian Army and RGF are engaged in bitter conflict over the city of Kherson. The fall of the city would severely impair the Ukrainian position, as it would leave Odessa defenseless.

On the Northern Front, RGF formations are currently battling for control of Antonov Airport in Hostomel, less than 25 kilometers from Kyiv.

0620 EET - 2/25/22 - Ukraine / Russian Federation

The Ukrainian Government have announced that RGF forces are operating within the city of Kyiv. While they claim the current force is limited to special operation units, open source reporting indicates a major movement of RGF formations towards the city from the northern front. There are conflicting reports regarding the skirmish at Antonov Airport in Hostomel, as some sources are claiming fighting is ongoing, while others report the defeat of a Russian VDV battalion.

On the Southern Front, Russian Ground Force and Ukrainian Army elements remain intensely engaged over the city of Kherson. The fall of Kherson would deal a bitter blow to the Ukrainian Government, as it would leave the road to Odessa open and exposed.

On the Northern Front, RGF formations remain engaged over the city of Sumy. Although some Russian forces have bypassed the city, Ukrainian defenders continue to fight block by block.

Across the Russian Federation, anti-war protests continue to grow in strength. Thus far, public gatherings have occurred in nearly 54 cities.

1440 EET - 2/25/22 - Black Sea

The Millennial Spirit, a Moldovan flagged chemical tanker, has been struck by a missile in the Black Sea. The perpetrators of the strike remain unknown. According to public sources, the vessel is under its own power and is seeking to exfiltrate itself from the area.

1500 EET - 2/25/22 - Ukraine

The Russian Federation claims it has captured Antonov Airport in Hostomel, less than 25 kilometers from Kyiv. Located in Kyiv Oblast, the facility is critical in the upcoming fight for the capital, as it can enable Russian Ground Force (RGF) formations to coordinate logistical support close to the front. While the Ukrainian government claimed it had recaptured the airport less than 22 hours ago, it now appears as though the victory was short lived.

The Ukrainian Army continues to relocate units to Kyiv as Russian troops rapidly approach the city. Russian special mission units have already entered the city, carrying out sabotage operations and causing chaos in the Ukrainian rear areas. It appears as though Russian forces have established frontlines to the north and west of Ukraine's capital.

On the Southern Front, Russian Ground Force and Ukrainian Army elements remain intensely engaged over the city of Kherson. Open source intelligence indicates Russian forces continue to flow towards the city. The fall of Kherson would deal a bitter blow to the Ukrainian Government, as it would leave the road to Odessa open and exposed.

On the political front, the Russian Federation has expressed a willingness to negotiate with Ukrainian policymakers. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced it was ready to dispatch delegates to Minsk in order to discuss concluding the conflict and guaranteeing Ukraine's future neutrality between NATO and the Russian Federation.

The United States and other NATO members have increased the number of airframes assigned to air policing missions in Europe. Although fighters have been operating with trackers off near Ukrainian and Belarusian airspace, support craft with active trackers allow analysts to roughly track the movements of American and European fighters. As of 1500 EET, the United States has two Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) aircraft and one refueling tanker in the air, while NATO is utilizing one E-3A Sentry for a similar mission. The Swedish Government has maintained at least one S102B Korpen Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) aircraft along Ukrainian and Belarusian airspace for the past 24 hours.

1600 EET - 2/25/22 - Poland

The United States has completed the deployment of 5,000 men to Poland. According to public sources, 7,000 will be located in the country over the next week.

A UH-60M Blackhawk (Duke-47) has been operating in Przemysl, Poland since 1500. The exact mission of this airframe is not obvious, although it is likely supporting humanitarian and civil support missions at the Polish-Ukrainian border. American Soldiers have been supporting Polish authorities at checkpoints across the border for the past week.

A Ukrainian Antov AN-26 (42571) has just landed in Poland. It is likely ferrying emergency supplies to Ukraine given the lack of resources being experienced by the government in Kyiv.